Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:05:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0e9…2e39 other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$229 (-22%) realized −$229 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days−$67
14 days−$165
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$266
sports 39% +$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +1.1% -8.5% 53% 53% -15.9%
≤30d 17 -9.6% -18.2% 47% 47% -23.8%
≤90d 17 -9.6% -18.2% 47% 47% -23.8%
all 17 -9.6% -18.2% 47% 47% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 47% -23.8%
10% -26.1% 47% -31.1%
15% -33.2% 47% -37.8%
20% -39.8% 47% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$64 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$229
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage8d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$38 +75%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 +$51 +101%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $46 −$45 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $36 +$39 +109%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$26 +73%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 +$39 +109%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 −$35 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 +$72 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$200 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$41 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records