Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0e9…67ff sports 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 412d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,314 (+5%) realized +$3,306 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 34L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$1,064per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$735est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7,138
14 days+$5,179
30 days+$3,681
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$7,723
other 24% +$11,413
politics 4% −$581
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -31.5% -38.0% 31% 31% +17.6%
≤30d 60 -18.5% -26.3% 45% 45% -4.1%
≤90d 60 -18.5% -26.3% 45% 45% -4.1%
all 61 -18.5% -26.3% 44% 44% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 44% -5.2%
10% -33.3% 36% -14.3%
15% -39.8% 34% -22.6%
20% -45.7% 30% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,062) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,081 vs −$767 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

412d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized+$3,306
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$735
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage412d
Avg bet$1,064
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Team Evictix 45¢ 46¢ $492 $497 +$5 (+1%)
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes $4 $7 +$3 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,121 −$1,120 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $122 −$122 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $660 −$660 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $995 −$990 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Alexis Vega: 2+ shots Jun 11 $12,997 +$12,057 +93%
Alexis Vega: 3+ shots Jun 11 $1,604 +$576 +36%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $16 +$17 +109%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $640 +$408 +64%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $555 −$323 -58%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $911 −$911 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $668 +$1,636 +245%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $550 −$550 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $2,530 −$1,175 -46%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,590 −$1,020 -64%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $1,620 −$1,620 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $875 −$875 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $1,136 −$1,136 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $655 −$655 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $3,925 +$4,054 +103%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $83 +$74 +89%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $1,050 +$1,200 +114%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $462 −$462 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $947 −$947 -100%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $11 +$2 +16%
Spread: Syria (-2.5) Jun 08 $360 +$40 +11%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $360 +$40 +11%
Spread: Bahrain (-2.5) Jun 08 $450 +$50 +11%
Spread: Bahrain (-1.5) Jun 08 $495 +$55 +11%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $371 +$188 +51%
Spread: Syria (-1.5) Jun 08 $0 $0 +96%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $625 +$232 +37%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $665 −$665 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,115 +$885 +79%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $966 +$1,652 +171%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $560 −$560 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $505 +$448 +89%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $540 +$460 +85%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $711 −$710 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 06 $459 −$459 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,062 +$978 +92%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $897 −$897 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $466 −$465 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Valorant: So:sweet vs X-CAST (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 06 $18 +$22 +122%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 06 $1,440 +$960 +67%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $504 −$503 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 45¢ $4 6m
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 45¢ $226 19m
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 45¢ $44 52m
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 45¢ $4 1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 45¢ $218 1h
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $9 3d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $5 3d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $3 3d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $3 3d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $6 3d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $152 3d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $12 3d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $13 3d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $77 3d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $776 4d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $5 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $122 4d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $60 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 50¢ $172 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 50¢ $9 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 50¢ $3 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 50¢ $3 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 50¢ $5 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 50¢ $61 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 50¢ $150 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 50¢ $44 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 50¢ $52 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 50¢ $1 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1,200 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 33¢ $660 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.26 · official $504.17 (match) · 625 history records