Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0e8…9ff7 crypto 277 markets active 1d ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$89 (-3%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%92W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$33
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$275
other 5% +$1
politics 1% −$25
sports 1% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +14.7% +3.7% 23% 21% -3.1%
≤30d 43 +14.7% +3.7% 23% 21% -3.1%
≤90d 276 -13.9% -22.1% 33% 30% -14.2%
all 276 -13.9% -22.1% 33% 30% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 30% -14.2%
10% -29.6% 26% -22.4%
15% -36.4% 22% -29.9%
20% -42.6% 19% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses92 / 184
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)276 / 277
History coverage74d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 276 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Jun 16 $51 −$25 -49%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -64%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$33 +319%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Kash Patel out by April 30? Jun 13 $21 −$10 -50%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$94 +1825%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 −$23 -73%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $7 +$51 +685%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$58 +143%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$1 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$16 +296%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$17 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$9 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 27 $10 +$7 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 27 $10 +$11 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 26 $10 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 26 $40 −$34 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 26h
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? SELL Yes 23¢ $26 26h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $43 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 92¢ $99 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? SELL Yes 63¢ $23 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 740 history records