Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0e6…9b21 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1,384 (+11%) realized +$1,384 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +477% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +326% what you keep after slip
Net edge+326%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$3,229per market
Trades / day112.0pace
Fees−$155est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$391
other 50% +$1,587
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+422.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +477.0% +422.0% 50% 50% -1.2%
≤30d 4 +477.0% +422.0% 50% 50% -1.2%
≤90d 4 +477.0% +422.0% 50% 50% -1.2%
all 4 +477.0% +422.0% 50% 50% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +422.0% 50% -1.2%
10% +372.1% 25% -10.7%
15% ← realistic here +326.4% 25% -19.3%
20% +284.6% 25% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +477% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
14.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,012 vs −$24 · ×43.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×43.05 per $1 lost it wins $43.05
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,384
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$155
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3,229
Trades / day112.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $3,586 +$438 +12%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $687 −$30 -4%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,218 −$17 -1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,426 +$1,587 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 14¢ $125 58m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 12¢ $111 58m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 11¢ $103 59m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 13¢ $123 59m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 40¢ $424 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 58¢ $859 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $514 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $387 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 75¢ $2,132 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 77¢ $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $2,253 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 41¢ $243 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 41¢ $99 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 42¢ $87 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $446 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $7 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 2¢ $17 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $366 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $391 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $427 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $23 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $392 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $24 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $4 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $21 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $48 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $155 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $422 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $518 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records