Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:17:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0e6…51ac sports 304 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,292 (-10%) realized −$1,292 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate62%187W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$181
7 days−$231
14 days−$231
30 days−$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$894
sports 46% −$374
world 2% −$32
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -16.1% -24.1% 47% 29% -30.5%
≤30d 25 -7.7% -16.5% 44% 32% -26.3%
≤90d 69 -16.1% -24.1% 49% 29% -26.4%
all 304 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 31% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 31% -18.4%
10% -22.7% 14% -26.2%
15% -30.2% 6% -33.3%
20% -37.0% 4% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$18 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,292
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses187 / 117
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)304 / 304
History coverage116d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 304 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$8 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $226 −$195 -86%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $8 −$3 -37%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $120 +$4 +4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $110 +$15 +13%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $74 −$4 -6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $80 −$6 -7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $67 +$2 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $212 −$51 -24%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $11 −$4 -37%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $20 +$20 +97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $58 +$21 +37%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 $0 -4%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $5 $0 -4%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $5 $0 -9%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $10 $0 -3%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $39 +$27 +67%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $2 +$1 +67%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $93 −$92 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Apr 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Mar 31 $32 +$5 +15%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-30? Mar 31 $53 +$5 +9%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings Mar 30 $26 +$2 +9%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 29 $25 $0 +1%
Will Georgia win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $14 +$11 +78%
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $11 +$3 +25%
Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $9 +$2 +28%
Will Algeria win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $6 +$2 +35%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-25? Mar 26 $5 +$1 +28%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier B: Eswatini vs Tanzania Mar 25 $5 $0 +8%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 25 $15 −$6 -43%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Silkeborg IF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $14 +$4 +30%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $29 +$1 +5%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $9 +$3 +32%
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $9 +$1 +7%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 22 $35 −$8 -24%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $28 +$2 +6%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $75 −$26 -34%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $12 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $40 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $31 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $126 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 1¢ $2 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 1¢ $3 11h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 4¢ $3 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 6¢ $5 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $124 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $120 19h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $40 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $70 34h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $70 42h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $74 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $74 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $80 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 89¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $69 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $67 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $67 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 58¢ $7 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 79¢ $95 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $80 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $19 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 811 history records