Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:27:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D0 0xd0e3…99a1 sports 415 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,368 (+12%) realized +$3,376 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%209W / 201L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$248est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$284
7 days−$293
14 days−$309
30 days−$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$2,609
crypto 28% +$241
other 8% −$28
world 5% −$35
politics 4% −$4
economics 1% +$1
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -72.6% -75.2% 15% 15% -77.5%
≤30d 25 -43.0% -48.5% 32% 28% -57.0%
≤90d 410 -1.5% -10.9% 51% 42% -5.2%
all 410 -1.5% -10.9% 51% 42% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 42% -5.2%
10% -19.4% 38% -14.3%
15% -27.2% 33% -22.6%
20% -34.3% 28% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$45 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$517
Realized+$3,376
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses209 / 201
Est. fees paid−$248
Open positions5
Markets (closed)410 / 415
History coverage73d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 410 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 79¢ 100¢ $400 $507 +$107 (+27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 27¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 65¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs PlayTime 48¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Oeiras 4: Francesca Jones vs Guiomar Maristany Jun 18 $25 +$9 +34%
T20 Series South Africa vs. India, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Viktoriya Tomova vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenko Jun 18 $50 −$15 -30%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Rebecca Sramkova Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Patrick Kypson vs Moise Kouame Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoff Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Pedro Martinez Jun 18 $50 −$33 -66%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Harry Maguire be included in England's official 2026 World Cup sq Jun 02 $15 $0 -1%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 May 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad May 29 $26 +$1 +2%
Kosice: Andrej Martin vs Jozef Kovalik May 26 $26 +$29 +114%
Spread: AC Goianiense (-1.5) May 25 $52 −$52 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz May 23 $9 +$3 +28%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 23 $8 +$8 +105%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 22 $21 +$7 +34%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $51 +$44 +86%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $51 −$51 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 19 $51 +$25 +50%
James Harden: Assists O/U 6.5 May 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Nashville SC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $26 +$17 +67%
Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5) May 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) May 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Everton FC (-1.5) May 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Renofa Yamaguchi FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will NK Varaždin win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $26 +$25 +99%
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 15 $51 −$51 -100%
San Diego FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5 May 14 $33 +$38 +116%
Indiana Fever vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 184.5 May 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Ferro Carril Oeste vs. Regatas May 14 $51 +$37 +72%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 18.5 May 08 $26 +$24 +95%
Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5) May 08 $51 +$96 +186%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 20.5 May 07 $44 +$40 +91%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5 May 07 $51 +$62 +121%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $41 +$29 +72%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-03-08? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SC Internacional vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? May 04 $13 +$5 +38%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group May 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Raja Club Athletic (-1.5) May 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Kashima Antlers vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw? May 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5 May 03 $8 +$19 +246%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 48¢ $15 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $52 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $407 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 96¢ $1 29h
Will Mexico score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 29h
Will Uruguay score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 29h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 2d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 3d
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 44¢ $1 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 44¢ $1 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 43¢ $1 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 43¢ $1 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 45¢ $1 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 45¢ $1 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 45¢ $1 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 45¢ $1 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 28¢ $1 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 28¢ $1 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 28¢ $1 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 28¢ $1 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 27¢ $1 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 59¢ $1 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 59¢ $1 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 59¢ $1 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 59¢ $1 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 59¢ $1 16d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 59¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $516.61 · official $516.61 (match) · 1860 history records