Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D0 0xd0e1…99db sports 612 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,087 (+0%) realized +$2,615 · open −$1,528
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate81%490W / 113L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$419per market
Trades / day41.9pace
Fees−$1,486est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$7,848now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$4,074
other 17% −$833
world 1% +$457
politics 0% −$2
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 247 +3.3% -6.6% 76% 28% -9.6%
≤30d 340 +4.6% -5.4% 80% 27% -4.6%
≤90d 603 +4.0% -5.9% 81% 24% -7.6%
all 603 +4.0% -5.9% 81% 24% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 24% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 20% -16.4%
15% -23.1% 17% -24.5%
20% -30.7% 12% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$384 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$7,848
Realized+$2,615
Unrealized−$1,528
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses490 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$1,486
Open positions9
Markets (closed)603 / 612
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$419
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 603 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Over 20¢ 40¢ $1,967 $3,982 +$2,016 (+102%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 67¢ 32¢ $6,621 $3,147 −$3,474 (-52%)
Colombia to win the second half? No 35¢ 50¢ $220 $318 +$97 (+44%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 60¢ 31¢ $381 $197 −$184 (-48%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 100¢ $62 $135 +$73 (+117%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Team to Take First Corner Austria 98¢ 50¢ $95 $48 −$47 (-49%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Team to Take First Corner Jordan 8¢ 50¢ $2 $15 +$12 (+554%)
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Brazil 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Under 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama to win the second half? Jun 18 $4 +$3 +67%
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $246 +$151 +61%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $127 −$127 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $706 +$706 +100%
England vs. Croatia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $995 +$5 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $990 +$10 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3,072 +$28 +1%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $359 +$397 +110%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $436 +$214 +49%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $431 +$530 +123%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $176 +$19 +11%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $195 −$195 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $445 −$445 -100%
England to win the second half? Jun 17 $672 −$672 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,025 +$1 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,481 +$15 +1%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $430 +$873 +203%
DR Congo to win the second half? Jun 17 $243 +$52 +21%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2,390 +$2 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $164 +$185 +113%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 +$100 +400%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $122 +$100 +82%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $806 −$806 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $35 +$8 +22%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $94 −$94 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $170 −$168 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $453 +$47 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $691 +$9 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $851 +$1 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $863 +$323 +37%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $597 +$505 +84%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $156 +$12 +8%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $342 −$342 -100%
Austria to win the second half? Jun 17 $418 −$418 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $139 +$1 +0%
Algeria to win the second half? Jun 17 $70 +$21 +30%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,025 +$4,539 +113%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $800 +$67 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $26 +$2 +8%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $4,113 −$4,113 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $18 −$17 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $86 +$1 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $46 +$26 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $245 39m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 39m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $99 39m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $33 39m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $159 39m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $62 39m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $50 40m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $295 41m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $7 41m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $22 41m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $2 41m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $14 41m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $13 41m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $2 41m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $27 41m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 42m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 43m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 43m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $9 43m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $18 43m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1,351 43m
Colombia to win the second half? BUY No 35¢ $3 54m
Colombia to win the second half? BUY No 35¢ $6 55m
Colombia to win the second half? BUY No 35¢ $151 55m
Colombia to win the second half? BUY No 35¢ $3 55m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $1 55m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 56m
Colombia to win the second half? BUY No 35¢ $37 56m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $619 59m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $37 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,847.78 · official $7,847.78 (match) · 3500 history records