Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:16:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D0 0xd0e0…a7f6 politics 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,040 (+63%) realized +$982 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +157% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +115% what you keep after slip
Net edge+115%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% +$2,552
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+132.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +171.7% +145.8% 100% 80% +140.5%
≤30d 6 +157.0% +132.6% 100% 83% +132.5%
≤90d 6 +157.0% +132.6% 100% 83% +132.5%
all 6 +157.0% +132.6% 100% 83% +132.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +132.6% 83% +132.5%
10% +110.3% 67% +110.3%
15% +90.0% 50% +90.0%
20% +71.4% 50% +71.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +157% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +157% · $-wt +157% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$416 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$982
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage12d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Will voter turnout be 54-57% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 23¢ $1 $47 +$45 (+3593%)
Will voter turnout be 60%+ in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+722%)
Will voter turnout be 51-54% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $6 +$5 (+1150%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $618 +$6 +1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $285 +$2,175 +764%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 21 $221 +$122 +55%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $83 +$20 +24%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $213 +$30 +14%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 11 $169 +$142 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $623 19m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 98¢ $341 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 98¢ $1 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 98¢ $775 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 98¢ $916 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 98¢ $37 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 98¢ $245 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 98¢ $6 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 98¢ $5 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 98¢ $16 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 98¢ $14 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 98¢ $15 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 98¢ $32 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 98¢ $78 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 98¢ $539 1h
Will voter turnout be 51-54% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre SELL Yes 12¢ $56 1h
Will voter turnout be 51-54% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will voter turnout be 51-54% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will voter turnout be 51-54% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will voter turnout be 51-54% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will voter turnout be 51-54% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will voter turnout be 51-54% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will voter turnout be 51-54% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will voter turnout be 60%+ in the first round of the 2026 Colombian pr BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will voter turnout be 60%+ in the first round of the 2026 Colombian pr BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will voter turnout be 60%+ in the first round of the 2026 Colombian pr BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will voter turnout be 60%+ in the first round of the 2026 Colombian pr BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will voter turnout be 60%+ in the first round of the 2026 Colombian pr BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will voter turnout be 54-57% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.89 · official $109.89 (match) · 146 history records