Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0dc…71d1 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+15%) realized +$1 · open +$105
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$113
sports 21% +$52
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -15.2% -23.3% 35% 35% -8.2%
≤30d 26 -4.9% -13.9% 38% 35% -0.7%
≤90d 26 -4.9% -13.9% 38% 35% -0.7%
all 26 -4.9% -13.9% 38% 35% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 35% -0.7%
10% -22.2% 19% -10.2%
15% -29.7% 15% -18.9%
20% -36.6% 12% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late -69% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$9 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$105
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage10d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 81¢ $0 $105 +$105 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -88%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +13%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $2 −$2 -93%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Billy Horschel win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $56 +$7 +13%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $12 −$5 -42%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $80 +$17 +21%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$43 +797%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $73 +$8 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$28 +35%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $53 +$25 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$2 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$17 -81%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 +$28 +131%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 +$50 +236%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $46 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $46 1h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes $0 44h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 44h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Dallas Wings $0 4d
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Dallas Wings 12¢ $2 4d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 35¢ $5 4d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will Billy Horschel win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $63 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $56 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $80 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $48 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $4 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $52 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $81 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $73 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $109 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $81 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $78 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.46 · official $105.47 (match) · 51 history records