Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0dc…ffad other 1114 markets active 1d ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,252 (-5%) realized −$1,252 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%643W / 470L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$489
14 days−$647
30 days−$881
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$1,177
sports 27% −$138
world 1% +$13
crypto 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -50.7% -55.4% 26% 21% -50.0%
≤30d 222 -18.2% -26.0% 58% 49% -22.1%
≤90d 859 -2.9% -12.1% 60% 57% -14.6%
all 1113 -3.4% -12.6% 58% 55% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 55% -14.5%
10% -21.0% 48% -22.6%
15% -28.6% 37% -30.1%
20% -35.6% 22% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$19 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$1,252
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses643 / 470
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1113 / 1114
History coverage123d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $68 −$67 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$48 +93%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $63 +$37 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $81 −$81 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $70 +$30 +44%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $80 −$2 -2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $90 −$2 -2%
Will Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR end in a draw? Jun 10 $26 +$10 +39%
Will Togo vs. Benin end in a draw? Jun 09 $25 +$11 +44%
Will Angola vs. Central African Republic end in a draw? Jun 09 $27 +$9 +32%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $23 +$13 +56%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Venezuela vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 07 $28 +$8 +29%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $27 +$9 +34%
Will Malawi win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $11 −$10 -99%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $29 +$10 +36%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $36 +$3 +10%
Will Bhutan win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $37 +$2 +6%
Will Dominican Republic win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $35 +$4 +11%
Will Panama vs. Dominican Republic end in a draw? Jun 04 $34 +$5 +16%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $29 +$10 +34%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 03 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $29 +$9 +32%
Will Netherlands vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $31 +$7 +24%
Will Luxembourg vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 03 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $23 +$16 +67%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $33 +$5 +16%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $35 +$4 +11%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $28 +$11 +39%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Andorra vs. Liechtenstein end in a draw? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $35 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL No 79¢ $79 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 89¢ $89 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $90 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $80 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 6d
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? SELL No 92¢ $33 8d
Will Angola vs. Central African Republic end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $27 8d
Will Togo vs. Benin end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $25 8d
Will Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $8 8d
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 64¢ $23 8d
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 93¢ $34 8d
Will Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $3 8d
Will Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $15 8d
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.50 · official $25.50 (match) · 2666 history records