Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:43:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

D0 0xd0da…9b36 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)

Total PnL +$363 (+48%) realized +$362 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate44%12W / 15L

Drawdown22%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day4.1pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit39%portable

Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$58

7 days+$348

14 days+$336

30 days+$336

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-16.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	-10.0%	-18.6%	44%	40%	+43.9%
≤30d	27	-7.6%	-16.4%	44%	41%	+37.3%
≤90d	27	-7.6%	-16.4%	44%	41%	+37.3%
all	27	-7.6%	-16.4%	44%	41%	+37.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.4%	41%	+37.3%
10%	-24.4%	41%	+24.1%
15%	-31.7%	33%	+12.1%
20%	-38.4%	30%	+1.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt +52% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -6% → late -9% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$44 vs −$13 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.76 per $1 lost it wins $2.76

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$101

Realized+$362

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses12 / 15

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions1

Markets (closed)27 / 28

History coverage13d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day4.1

Drawdown22%

Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Yes	51¢	52¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa?	Jun 18	$10	−$4	-37%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa?	Jun 18	$10	+$3	+29%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa?	Jun 18	$10	+$3	+26%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$10	+$10	+100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia?	Jun 17	$5	+$2	+47%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$51	+$33	+64%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$10	+$14	+139%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$20	+$22	+109%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$51	−$51	-100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$20	+$20	+100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 17	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$50	+$2	+4%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$51	+$100	+197%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$30	−$9	-30%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 14	$9	−$9	-100%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$153	+$308	+201%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$50	−$20	-41%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 09	$10	+$9	+85%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$101	1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	2h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa?	SELL Yes	4¢	$6	3h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa?	SELL Yes	15¢	$13	3h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa?	SELL Yes	8¢	$13	3h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	12h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	12h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	12h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	100¢	$20	21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	50¢	$3	22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	50¢	$7	22h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia?	SELL Yes	23¢	$8	22h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$83	22h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	22h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	60¢	$51	23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$24	24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	41¢	$10	26h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	37h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	38h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$43	38h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	BUY Yes	25¢	$10	38h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$20	39h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	40h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	SELL Yes	56¢	$41	41h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	27¢	$20	41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	54¢	$51	42h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	42h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	44h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	44h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.98 · official $100.98 (match) · 1190 history records