Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:14:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0d9…7d65 crypto 646 markets active 2h ago coverage 1114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$175 (-2%) realized −$176 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate72%464W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$14
14 days+$25
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$154
weather 19% −$9
sports 12% −$110
other 10% +$36
politics 4% +$11
finance 3% +$5
world 2% +$6
tech 1% +$3
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +2.1% -7.6% 87% 4% -8.3%
≤30d 63 +1.0% -8.7% 87% 6% -8.8%
≤90d 642 -5.2% -14.3% 72% 29% -11.6%
all 644 -4.2% -13.3% 72% 29% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 29% -11.4%
10% -21.6% 21% -19.9%
15% -29.2% 16% -27.6%
20% -36.1% 13% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1114d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$176
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses464 / 180
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)644 / 646
History coverage1114d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 644 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be at least 450k? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day 6? No 98¢ 100¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Jun 19 $48 +$2 +3%
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $45 +$3 +6%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 18 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%? Jun 18 $45 +$1 +2%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +2%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $42 +$6 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $42 +$1 +3%
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 16 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 15? Jun 15 $41 +$1 +3%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $41 +$1 +2%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $39 +$1 +3%
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $38 $0 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $38 +$2 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$1 +3%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $73 +$2 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 12? Jun 12 $36 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $84 −$14 -16%
Will Lindsey Graham win the first round of the South Carolina Republic Jun 12 $84 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $82 +$2 +2%
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar Jun 10 $81 +$2 +2%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $75 +$5 +7%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $67 +$2 +3%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $65 +$2 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $64 +$1 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Rubrik (RBRK) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 04 $68 −$3 -4%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 04 $67 +$1 +2%
Will Aaron Flint be the Republican nominee for MT-01? Jun 03 $66 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 02 $50 +$7 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $50 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $66 −$64 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 1? Jun 01 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 01 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 31? May 31 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma May 30 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29? May 29 $87 +$20 +23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 29? May 29 $89 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 29? May 29 $88 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 98¢ $50 1h
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day BUY No 98¢ $48 3h
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June BUY No 96¢ $48 3h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 100¢ $46 15h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 98¢ $45 17h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL No 98¢ $46 17h
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 94¢ $45 24h
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%? SELL No 100¢ $46 24h
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%? BUY No 98¢ $45 28h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY No 97¢ $45 2d
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 98¢ $45 2d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 100¢ $46 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 2d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 97¢ $45 2d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY No 88¢ $42 3d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $42 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 3d
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week SELL Yes 97¢ $41 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 3d
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week BUY Yes 98¢ $42 3d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $41 3d
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $41 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 SELL No 99¢ $40 4d
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 97¢ $39 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY No 96¢ $39 5d
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' SELL No 98¢ $38 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $38 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.73 · official $98.73 (match) · 1332 history records