Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:08:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D0 0xd0d9…d6db world 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$8,080 (+13%) realized +$8,155 · open −$75
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%60W / 38L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$543per market
Trades / day52.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$5,531now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$194
7 days−$619
14 days−$91
30 days+$5,932
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$8,814
other 11% +$170
finance 7% −$349
crypto 0% +$15
politics 0% −$38
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -20.7% -28.3% 29% 14% -15.3%
≤30d 40 +21.9% +10.3% 60% 55% +6.0%
≤90d 98 +50.1% +35.8% 61% 48% +4.7%
all 98 +50.1% +35.8% 61% 48% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.8% 48% +4.7%
10% +22.8% 37% -5.3%
15% ← realistic here +11.0% 31% -14.5%
20% +0.1% 20% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$531) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +74% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$237 vs −$145 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$5,531
Realized+$8,155
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses60 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)98 / 119
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$543
Trades / day52.9
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1,765 $1,720 −$46 (-3%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 67¢ 78¢ $784 $915 +$130 (+17%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $905 $861 −$44 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 11¢ 14¢ $609 $722 +$113 (+18%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $240 $258 +$18 (+7%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No $254 $257 +$3 (+1%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes $395 $255 −$139 (-35%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $151 $130 −$21 (-14%)
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? No $157 $118 −$38 (-24%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? No $75 $68 −$6 (-8%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No $25 $37 +$12 (+50%)
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Yes 18¢ $47 $21 −$26 (-56%)
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-36%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? Yes 50¢ 32¢ $27 $17 −$9 (-36%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes $9 $12 +$3 (+39%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Yes $15 $5 −$10 (-66%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Yes 19¢ 11¢ $8 $4 −$3 (-42%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 29¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+226%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+580%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $2,076 −$194 -9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $434 −$109 -25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $1,146 −$66 -6%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 19 $2,932 +$157 +5%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 17 $1,155 +$273 +24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,971 −$671 -34%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $6,692 +$2,876 +43%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $2,660 −$2,656 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2,202 +$292 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 11 $44 +$15 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1,587 +$1,092 +69%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $35 +$78 +223%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $831 +$132 +16%
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? Jun 01 $39 −$29 -74%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? Jun 01 $22 +$9 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Jun 01 $107 +$17 +16%
Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $184 +$81 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $275 +$74 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $195 +$33 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 29 $59 −$13 -22%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $48 −$36 -75%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $215 +$552 +257%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? May 28 $46 −$27 -57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $829 −$49 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $20 −$6 -32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $3,976 +$2,606 +66%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $366 −$185 -50%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $7 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $9 +$2 +18%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 25 $512 +$655 +128%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 25 $329 +$513 +156%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 25 $158 +$451 +286%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? May 25 $1,745 −$195 -11%
Will Russia enter Moskovka by May 31? May 25 $118 −$28 -24%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? May 23 $217 +$82 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $80 +$31 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $33 +$8 +22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $1,299 +$195 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $934 −$33 -4%
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? May 22 $5 +$3 +69%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? May 22 $1,091 +$342 +31%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $10 +$23 +234%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $84 +$10 +12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 20 $347 −$31 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 18 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? May 17 $1,031 +$585 +57%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 15 $1,452 −$7 -0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 15 $1,028 −$62 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $38 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 2h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 2h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 2h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $55 2h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $62 2h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No $20 4h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No $11 4h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $66 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $7 5h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $9 6h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL No $2 6h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $6 6h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No $13 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $108 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $151 11h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No $27 11h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY No $3 11h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY No $5 11h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY No $6 11h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY No $2 11h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY No $1 11h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY No $2 12h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY No $6 12h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No $30 12h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY No $5 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $12 13h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY No $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,531.28 · official $5,530.85 (match) · 3500 history records