Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:11:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd0d8…e3b9 crypto 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$238 (+1%) realized +$238 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate99%95W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$315
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +1.1% -8.6% 99% 3% -8.6%
≤30d 96 +1.1% -8.6% 99% 3% -8.6%
≤90d 96 +1.1% -8.6% 99% 3% -8.6%
all 96 +1.1% -8.6% 99% 3% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 3% -8.6%
10% -17.3% 1% -17.3%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$860) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×27.92 per $1 lost it wins $27.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$238
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses95 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage6d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $1,297 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $709 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $1,279 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $1,267 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $1,255 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $1,243 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $517 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $1,227 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $1,215 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $1,204 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $1,057 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $1,183 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $860 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $1,164 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $1,153 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $1,143 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $244 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $1,130 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $1,001 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $1,001 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $1,001 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $1,001 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $42 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,297 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $709 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,279 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,267 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,255 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,243 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $517 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,227 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,215 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,204 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,057 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,183 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $860 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,164 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,153 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,143 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $244 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,130 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,001 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,001 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1,001 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,001 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,001 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1,001 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,001 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,001 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,001 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $44 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $44 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $44 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 268 history records