Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0d5…39ec other 81 markets active 11h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17 (-14%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%35W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$17
sports 8% +$6
world 5% −$3
crypto 2% −$2
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -7.8% -16.6% 44% 44% -10.1%
≤30d 30 -42.3% -47.8% 27% 27% -36.2%
≤90d 82 -13.3% -21.6% 43% 43% -23.4%
all 82 -13.3% -21.6% 43% 43% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 43% -23.4%
10% -29.1% 43% -30.7%
15% -36.0% 43% -37.4%
20% -42.2% 40% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses35 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 81
History coverage62d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 +$3 +124%
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $7 +$7 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Granada CF win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $1 +$2 +158%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $1 +$1 +60%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1 +$1 +146%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 $0 +48%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 5d
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 8d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 8d
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 12d
Will Angola win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 12d
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 12d
Will Benin win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 12d
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 12d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 13d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 14d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 14d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 14d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 14d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 18d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 18d
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 18d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 19¢ $1 18d
Will Granada CF win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 18d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 18d
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY No 12¢ $3 19d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 22d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records