Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D0 0xd0d5…d3a6 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$844 (-29%) realized −$847 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$803
7 days−$737
14 days−$748
30 days−$748
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$740
world 3% −$100
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -23.0% -30.3% 45% 36% -35.8%
≤30d 12 -25.0% -32.2% 42% 33% -35.9%
≤90d 13 -30.8% -37.3% 38% 31% -38.3%
all 13 -30.8% -37.3% 38% 31% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.3% 31% -38.3%
10% -43.3% 15% -44.2%
15% -48.8% 8% -49.6%
20% -53.8% 0% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$132 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$847
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage60d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 89¢ 90¢ $148 $151 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $130 +$19 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $121 +$9 +7%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $107 +$14 +13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$66 -33%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $79 −$17 -22%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 +$61 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $128 −$90 -70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $923 −$726 -79%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $489 +$110 +22%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $274 −$44 -16%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $22 −$10 -47%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $149 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $149 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $130 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 93¢ $121 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $107 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $107 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $29 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 77¢ $84 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $17 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $20 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $20 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 30h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $49 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $192 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 67¢ $131 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $38 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $128 32h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $196 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $181 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $151 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $599 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $200 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.00 · official $151.00 (match) · 46 history records