Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D0 0xd0d4…dcab other 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%10W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$9
politics 19% −$3
sports 6% −$20
world 5% −$1
culture 4% −$1
tech 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 94 -7.5% -16.3% 11% 6% -9.7%
all 94 -7.5% -16.3% 11% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 6% -9.7%
10% -24.3% 6% -18.4%
15% -31.6% 4% -26.3%
20% -38.3% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses10 / 84
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage87d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $329 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $80 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $68 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $196 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $191 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $150 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $153 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $305 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $327 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $311 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $160 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 11 $159 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 10 $158 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $163 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $462 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $158 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 03 $159 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $323 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $518 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $151 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 28 $150 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $149 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $305 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $320 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $304 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $318 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $309 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $153 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 16 $154 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $437 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $162 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $166 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $316 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $159 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $437 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $159 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $275 $0 -0%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $156 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 10 $159 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 10 $157 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $479 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 18h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 21h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 11d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 11d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 12d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 12d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 14d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $35 15d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 15d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 16d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 17d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 23d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 23d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 24d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $68 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.47 · official $33.47 (match) · 277 history records