Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd0d1…66a9 other 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$31 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 93L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$14
politics 21% −$2
sports 6% +$17
world 4% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +29.0% +16.7% 20% 20% -1.8%
≤30d 18 +8.0% -2.3% 17% 6% -8.5%
≤90d 106 +3.7% -6.2% 12% 9% -9.2%
all 106 +3.7% -6.2% 12% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 9% -9.2%
10% -15.2% 9% -17.9%
15% -23.4% 8% -25.8%
20% -30.9% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×11.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 93
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)106 / 109
History coverage86d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 52¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 +$11 +146%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $241 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $76 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $76 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $138 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $16 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $87 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $79 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $79 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $75 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $74 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $158 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $79 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $75 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $160 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $156 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $140 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $84 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $81 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $84 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $79 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $156 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $82 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $84 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 01 $163 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $82 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $82 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $165 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 18 $84 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $85 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $77 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $143 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $78 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $16 17h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $16 19h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $9 21h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 35h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 41h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $8 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 13d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $14 14d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $14 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 15d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 15d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 18d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 18d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 19d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 19d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 20d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.15 · official $75.15 (match) · 284 history records