Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:22:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0cd…99c0 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,521 (-3%) realized −$1,521 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%4W / 50L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$874per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$10
politics 32% −$21
sports 8% −$1,520
economics 5% −$3
culture 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 54 -7.8% -16.6% 7% 6% -12.5%
all 54 -7.8% -16.6% 7% 6% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 6% -12.5%
10% -24.6% 6% -20.9%
15% -31.9% 6% -28.5%
20% -38.5% 4% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,214) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$32 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$524
Realized−$1,521
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses4 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage86d
Avg bet$874
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $524 $524 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $236 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $726 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $889 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $843 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $682 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $992 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $988 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $996 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 04 $373 +$1 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $554 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $1,696 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,761 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $498 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $30 +$28 +93%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $31 +$16 +50%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $11 $0 -4%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 10 $1,392 −$1,392 -100%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,292 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $3,767 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $2,219 $0 -0%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,255 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $2,454 −$2 -0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,217 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,131 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1,180 −$1 -0%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 10 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 06 $1,091 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $1,218 −$1 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 05 $1,217 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 05 $1,214 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $1,236 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 04 $1,161 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $235 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $236 6h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $524 4d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $833 9d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $834 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $604 9d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $605 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $725 10d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $726 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $621 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $622 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $664 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $665 11d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $748 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $749 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $858 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $859 13d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $887 13d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $889 13d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $660 14d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $661 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $740 18d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $741 18d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $842 18d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $843 18d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $681 19d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $682 19d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $990 20d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $992 20d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $859 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $524.23 · official $524.23 (match) · 145 history records