Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D0 0xd0cc…10f1 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$1
world 28% +$5
crypto 12% $0
politics 11% +$8
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +1.0% -8.7% 33% 33% -6.6%
≤90d 3 +1.0% -8.7% 33% 33% -6.6%
all 30 +7.3% -3.0% 40% 10% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 10% -7.4%
10% -12.2% 3% -16.3%
15% -20.7% 3% -24.4%
20% -28.5% 3% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.83 per $1 lost it wins $2.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage476d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $46 −$4 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $78 +$10 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 06 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 15 $17 $0 +1%
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 13 $17 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 09 $16 $0 -0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $2 $0 -18%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 07 $2 $0 -5%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 07 $15 $0 -1%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $21 −$2 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? Mar 11 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 4? Mar 06 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get 34-38m viewers? Mar 04 $3 +$7 +220%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $41 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $29 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $46 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $26 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $15 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $39 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $33 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $7 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $40 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $9 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $12 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $27 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 30d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 342d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $2 363d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 378d
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 378d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? SELL No 99¢ $16 379d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? BUY No 99¢ $16 379d
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 99¢ $16 379d
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 99¢ $16 380d
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election SELL No 96¢ $12 380d
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election SELL No 96¢ $4 380d
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election BUY No 96¢ $16 380d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.14 · official $42.14 (match) · 92 history records