Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0cc…7039 other 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$10
14 days−$17
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$41
politics 25% −$10
sports 16% −$7
crypto 10% +$5
finance 5% −$6
world 5% +$1
culture 4% −$3
economics 2% $0
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.4% -9.9% 18% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 60 -0.6% -10.1% 7% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 117 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.9%
all 134 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 114
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage100d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $256 −$3 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $91 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $103 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $263 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $107 $0 +0%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $46 −$1 -2%
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $7 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $546 −$2 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 07 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $145 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $45 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $179 −$1 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $44 $0 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $112 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $154 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $96 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $82 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $97 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $61 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $85 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $63 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $38 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 53m
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $25 5h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 6h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $52 12h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $42 12h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $42 20h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $38 21h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $38 27h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 27h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 35h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 35h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $9 43h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 43h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 44h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $12 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $12 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $53 2d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $53 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $55 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.86 · official $54.86 (match) · 481 history records