Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D0 0xd0c7…4459 sports 903 markets active 5d ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,590 (-4%) realized −$3,590 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate62%558W / 345L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$313est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$382
14 days−$382
30 days−$452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$4,352
other 1% −$6
world 0% −$18
finance 0% +$8
politics 0% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -22.0% -29.5% 54% 42% -24.0%
≤30d 31 -34.6% -40.8% 45% 35% -26.1%
≤90d 903 -12.2% -20.6% 62% 41% -13.7%
all 903 -12.2% -20.6% 62% 41% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 41% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 30% -21.9%
15% -35.1% 21% -29.5%
20% -41.5% 13% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$44 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,590
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses558 / 345
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$313
Open positions0
Markets (closed)903 / 903
History coverage85d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 903 Trades
no open positions (134 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $145 −$143 -98%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 12 $37 −$36 -98%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $304 −$132 -43%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $77 +$35 +45%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $81 +$23 +29%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $286 −$43 -15%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$2 +8%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese Jun 12 $248 +$40 +16%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $211 +$36 +17%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $39 −$3 -7%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $100 +$16 +16%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $277 −$16 -6%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $20 −$1 -6%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $81 +$40 +50%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $117 +$43 +37%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $26 −$26 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $50 +$13 +26%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $60 +$19 +32%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $96 +$14 +15%
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Mai Hontama Jun 11 $153 −$101 -66%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $81 +$46 +57%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $101 +$6 +6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 18 $11 −$4 -37%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualif May 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Geneva Open: Valentin Royer vs Francisco Comesana May 18 $22 −$22 -98%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Alycia Parks vs Moyuka Uchijima May 18 $27 −$27 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur May 18 $18 +$31 +168%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 May 18 $18 +$7 +38%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova May 18 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal May 18 $23 −$22 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner May 18 $55 +$3 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner May 18 $49 +$13 +26%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leagu May 18 $7 −$6 -88%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5 May 18 $32 +$8 +26%
Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner May 18 $10 +$5 +54%
Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 18 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 18 $39 +$3 +7%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) May 17 $30 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 17 $7 +$2 +27%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $8 $0 +7%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $8 +$18 +216%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Q May 17 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: BRUTE vs eSuba - Game 2 Winner May 17 $8 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South Ame May 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner May 17 $20 +$4 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 48¢ $23 4d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 48¢ $61 4d
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Lanlana Tararudee 17¢ $37 4d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 55¢ $61 4d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak SELL Kamil Majchrzak 100¢ $181 4d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 94¢ $170 4d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 11¢ $16 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $88 4d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 36¢ $26 4d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 69¢ $91 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 57¢ $51 4d
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur SELL Alex de Minaur 100¢ $104 4d
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 77¢ $81 4d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard SELL Daniil Medvedev 100¢ $151 4d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard SELL Daniil Medvedev 62¢ $92 5d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 97¢ $216 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 40¢ $24 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 42¢ $26 5d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 87¢ $70 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $22 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 92¢ $20 5d
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese SELL Polina Iatcenko 100¢ $288 5d
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese BUY Polina Iatcenko 88¢ $167 5d
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese BUY Polina Iatcenko 82¢ $50 5d
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese BUY Polina Iatcenko 81¢ $30 5d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire SELL Las Vegas Aces 100¢ $247 5d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY Las Vegas Aces 85¢ $36 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 49¢ $36 5d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY Las Vegas Aces 94¢ $94 5d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY Las Vegas Aces 76¢ $81 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2227 history records