Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0c6…bbb2 world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$2
other 15% −$5
politics 9% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 5% −$1
economics 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -1.2% -10.6% 71% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 7 -1.2% -10.6% 71% 0% -10.2%
all 26 -5.2% -14.3% 58% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 0% -11.2%
10% -22.5% 0% -19.7%
15% -30.0% 0% -27.5%
20% -36.8% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage447d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $61 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $22 −$2 -7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $32 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $33 −$1 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $5 $0 -2%
Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 28 $18 $0 +0%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 28 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 25 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? Apr 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 23 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 23 $9 $0 -6%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 18 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 17 $9 $0 -0%
TikTok sale announced before April? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $31 1h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $28 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $3 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $30 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $14 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $16 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $30 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $20 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $32 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $2 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $26 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $5 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $10 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $21 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $33 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 27d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $5 355d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 94¢ $2 355d
Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean BUY No 99¢ $2 380d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $5 414d
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 414d
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 95¢ $9 414d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.96 · official $30.96 (match) · 67 history records