Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0c5…a82f sports 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-4%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%23W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$35
other 39% +$1
sports 8% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 61 -8.5% -17.2% 38% 0% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 0% -13.0%
10% -25.1% 0% -21.3%
15% -32.3% 0% -28.9%
20% -39.0% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses23 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage548d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $84 $84 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Jun 26 $84 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 24 $84 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? Dec 23 $83 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? Dec 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Dec 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 18 $83 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 11 $83 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Oct 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 October 6-12? Oct 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $122,000 and $124,000 on Septembe Oct 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $128,000 on September 25? Sep 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? Sep 25 $36 $0 +1%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Jan 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Jan 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 25 $10 $0 +1%
Solana above $215 on January 10? Jan 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jan 20 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum above $3,500 on January 10? Jan 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 10 $0 $0 -31%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? Jan 10 $12 $0 +2%
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 3? Jan 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $0 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 25 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 25 $0 $0 -7%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $0 $0 -20%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $0 $0 -20%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $0 $0 -20%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $0 $0 -17%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $0 $0 -17%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $0 $0 -14%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $0 $0 -14%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $0 $0 -12%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $0 $0 -12%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $0 $0 -12%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 25 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $84 1h
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $84 152d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $84 184d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $83 202d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 BUY No 100¢ $78 219d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5 219d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 BUY No 100¢ $83 226d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $83 235d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $37 253d
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 October 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $38 257d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $122,000 and $124,000 on Septembe BUY No 100¢ $38 271d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $128,000 on September 25? BUY No 100¢ $38 274d
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? BUY No 99¢ $36 504d
Manchester City wins the Premier League? SELL No 97¢ $6 516d
Will Biden finish his term? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 521d
Will someone else be inaugurated? BUY No 100¢ $10 521d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 521d
Ethereum above $3,500 on January 10? BUY No 99¢ $10 532d
Solana above $215 on January 10? BUY No 99¢ $10 532d
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? BUY No 97¢ $10 532d
Manchester City wins the Premier League? BUY No 96¢ $6 532d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $10 532d
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? SELL Yes $0 532d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $5 532d
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 538d
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 538d
Ethereum above $3,300 on January 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 538d
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 547d
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? BUY Yes $0 547d
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 547d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.16 · official $84.16 (match) · 126 history records