Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D0 0xd0c3…203e crypto 1749 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$416 (+4%) realized −$1,578 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate79%1649W / 431L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day52.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,712
7 days−$1,704
14 days−$1,673
30 days−$1,604
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 835 -38.3% -44.1% 58% 6% -39.6%
≤30d 1914 -16.0% -24.0% 78% 11% -21.4%
≤90d 2080 -14.4% -22.5% 79% 11% -20.5%
all 2080 -14.4% -22.5% 79% 11% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 11% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 5% -28.1%
15% -36.7% 2% -35.0%
20% -42.9% 1% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$1,578
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1649 / 431
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2080 / 1749
History coverage35d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day52.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2080 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 92¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 1PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - April 21, 10AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 1PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 21, 10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 2PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 4AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.86 · official $12.00 (match) · 3500 history records