Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:07:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0c3…8cd8 other 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 694d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$2,659 (-30%) realized −$2,911 · open +$171
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$828now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$857
7 days−$857
14 days−$857
30 days−$868
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$1,998
sports 12% +$147
culture 10% −$476
crypto 7% −$370
politics 6% +$115
tech 3% −$78
world 1% +$13
finance 1% −$82
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -71.7% -74.4% 20% 20% -66.7%
≤30d 9 -47.2% -52.3% 22% 22% -59.6%
≤90d 9 -47.2% -52.3% 22% 22% -59.6%
all 86 -15.4% -23.5% 40% 38% -42.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 38% -42.1%
10% -30.8% 35% -47.6%
15% -37.5% 33% -52.7%
20% -43.6% 28% -57.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23.48571230959721% → late -7.331420239415633% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$100 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

694d coverage
Net worth$828
Realized−$2,911
Unrealized+$171
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 52
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions6
Markets (closed)86 / 93
History coverage694d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $210 $308 +$98 (+46%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 81¢ $106 $163 +$57 (+54%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 36¢ $84 $110 +$25 (+30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $107 $99 −$9 (-8%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 29¢ $49 $59 +$10 (+21%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-18? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Ivory Coast win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Red Bull Racing finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $265 $0 −$265 (-100%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Nigeria win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $353 +$147 +42%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $205 −$200 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $449 −$439 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $165 −$164 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? May 22 $60 +$140 +233%
Will Senegal win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 19 $130 +$213 +164%
Will Morocco win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Nigeria win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 13 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Egypt win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 10 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 10 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 10 $46 +$54 +117%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? Jan 04 $83 +$97 +116%
Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Dec 29 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 26 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Dec 20 $87 +$13 +15%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 08 $69 +$231 +335%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 22 $386 −$186 -48%
Will Red Bull Racing finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Champions Nov 17 $398 −$346 -87%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $110 +$40 +37%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 15 $12 +$88 +733%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $100 +$36 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105,000 in November? Nov 05 $65 +$35 +54%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 02 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 02 $58 +$42 +72%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? Oct 26 $62 +$36 +58%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? Oct 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Oct 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Oct 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 21 $11 +$11 +103%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Oct 21 $39 +$61 +156%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Oct 19 $28 −$27 -96%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Oct 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26? Oct 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 17 $130 +$70 +54%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 15 $11 −$11 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down - October 15 Oct 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 09 $82 −$82 -100%
Patriots vs. Bills Oct 07 $57 +$43 +75%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60-70 million views on week 1? Oct 04 $7 +$7 +96%
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? Oct 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80-90 million views on week 1? Sep 30 $105 −$105 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70-80 million views on week 1? Sep 30 $54 −$54 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 25¢ $102 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $107 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $88 3h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $22 3h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 81¢ $24 3h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 81¢ $202 3h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 81¢ $17 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $86 4h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 19h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $77 23h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $44 24h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 24h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $165 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $179 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $64 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $129 3d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 21d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 21d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 21d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 21d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 21d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 21d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 21d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 12¢ $29 21d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 21d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 21d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $827.74 · official $927.76 · 396 history records