Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D0 0xd0c2…8915 crypto 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 726d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$379 (-1%) realized −$402 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%39W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,644now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$523
7 days+$437
14 days−$5,348
30 days−$4,587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$2,395
sports 13% −$249
other 4% −$238
world 4% +$2,036
politics 1% −$123
economics 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +130.2% +108.2% 50% 50% +191.3%
≤30d 67 -18.8% -26.6% 16% 15% -45.1%
≤90d 146 -7.5% -16.3% 20% 19% -25.7%
all 168 +8.5% -1.8% 23% 22% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 22% -16.1%
10% -11.2% 20% -24.2%
15% -19.8% 19% -31.5%
20% -27.7% 17% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$380 vs −$123 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

726d coverage
Net worth$1,644
Realized−$402
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses39 / 129
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions1
Markets (closed)168 / 169
History coverage726d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $1,620 $1,644 +$23 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $80 +$523 +650%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $162 −$104 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$32 +71%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Petr Yan fight Sean O’Malley next? Jun 16 $100 −$25 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $180 −$170 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $42 −$39 -94%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 15 $60 −$58 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $137 −$134 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$249 +606%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $131 −$124 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $93 −$87 -94%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $165 +$1 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $69 −$65 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $142 −$139 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $62 +$400 +650%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $31 +$469 +1521%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $23 −$22 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? Jun 13 $218 −$218 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 14? Jun 13 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? Jun 13 $411 −$411 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? Jun 13 $279 −$279 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 12? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 17? Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 1? Jun 13 $355 −$355 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? Jun 13 $131 −$131 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 17? Jun 13 $186 −$186 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? Jun 13 $152 −$138 -91%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? Jun 13 $450 −$450 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 13 $107 −$107 -100%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 29? Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 4-10? Jun 13 $488 −$488 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? Jun 13 $188 −$188 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? Jun 13 $288 −$288 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 10? Jun 13 $359 −$96 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? Jun 13 $265 +$276 +104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? Jun 13 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Solana dip to $80 on April 29? Jun 13 $213 −$213 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $105 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $420 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $80 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $76 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 13¢ $76 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 94¢ $77 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 53¢ $11 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 3¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 53¢ $35 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 3¢ $35 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 6¢ $11 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 6¢ $75 7d
Will Petr Yan fight Sean O’Malley next? SELL Yes 25¢ $75 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 11¢ $32 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 4¢ $42 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $210 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 18¢ $148 7d
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 6¢ $60 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $137 8d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $290 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $525 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $525 8d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 3¢ $47 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 3¢ $93 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 25¢ $84 9d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,643.65 · official $1,643.65 (match) · 502 history records