Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D0 0xd0bf…e4a1 crypto 240 markets active 1h ago coverage 436d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,753 (+4%) realized +$5,704 · open +$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%114W / 124L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$615per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$429now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$5,342
sports 26% −$4,511
crypto 24% −$2,802
politics 17% +$8,135
tech 0% −$500
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 50 -22.6% -30.0% 40% 34% -18.2%
all 238 -10.0% -18.6% 48% 41% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 41% -5.9%
10% -26.4% 35% -14.9%
15% -33.5% 27% -23.2%
20% -40.0% 23% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$654) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$379 vs −$303 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

436d coverage
Net worth$429
Realized+$5,704
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses114 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions2
Markets (closed)238 / 240
History coverage436d
Avg bet$615
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 79¢ 90¢ $295 $338 +$43 (+15%)
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $85 $91 +$6 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hamad Medjedovic Apr 18 $4 +$2 +54%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 18 $556 −$550 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees Apr 18 $100 +$59 +60%
Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $32 +$65 +206%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez Apr 17 $3,559 −$2,391 -67%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff Apr 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Anna Bondar vs Sorana Cirstea Apr 17 $2,768 +$82 +3%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor: Both Teams to Score Apr 17 $100 +$97 +97%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Mirra Andreeva Apr 17 $2,238 +$333 +15%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Marta Kostyuk vs Ann Li Apr 17 $2,300 −$197 -9%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo Apr 17 $100 +$55 +55%
Barcelona Open: Tomas Machac vs Andrey Rublev Apr 17 $2,310 +$20 +1%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina Apr 17 $2,200 +$110 +5%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 17 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees Apr 17 $37 +$71 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 15 $152 +$63 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 1PM ET Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 2PM ET Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 15 $60 +$30 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Fiona Ferro vs Sorana Cirstea Apr 15 $100 +$52 +52%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $1,160 +$215 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 13 $50 +$25 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 13 $21 +$36 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 13 $20 +$34 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 13 $20 +$46 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 13 $20 +$65 +325%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $1,575 +$608 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 3PM ET Apr 13 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 79¢ $297 45m
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 19¢ $88 1h
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 68d
Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Andrey Rublev 100¢ $6 68d
Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Andrey Rublev 64¢ $4 68d
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Flavio Cobolli SELL Alexander Zverev 6¢ $0 68d
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Flavio Cobolli SELL Alexander Zverev 2¢ $4 68d
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Alexander Zverev 83¢ $556 68d
Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-04-17? SELL No 100¢ $97 68d
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $100 69d
Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-04-17? BUY No 32¢ $32 69d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 22¢ $442 69d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 42¢ $859 69d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 24¢ $726 69d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 89¢ $2,700 69d
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Anna Bondar vs Sorana Cirstea SELL Sorana Cirstea 100¢ $2,850 69d
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Anna Bondar vs Sorana Cirstea BUY Sorana Cirstea 97¢ $2,768 69d
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $197 69d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Mirra Andreeva 100¢ $2,571 69d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 92¢ $2,188 69d
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Marta Kostyuk vs Ann Li SELL Marta Kostyuk 100¢ $2,188 69d
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Marta Kostyuk vs Ann Li BUY Marta Kostyuk 96¢ $2,100 69d
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Marta Kostyuk vs Ann Li BUY Ann Li 53¢ $114 69d
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Marta Kostyuk vs Ann Li BUY Ann Li 59¢ $86 69d
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $100 69d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 24¢ $50 69d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 29¢ $36 69d
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Alexander Zverev 99¢ $155 69d
Barcelona Open: Tomas Machac vs Andrey Rublev SELL Andrey Rublev 100¢ $2,331 69d
Barcelona Open: Tomas Machac vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 99¢ $2,310 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $429.44 · official $422.23 · 690 history records