Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D0 0xd0bf…f035 sports 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,649 (-11%) realized −$4,335 · open −$314
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%50W / 64L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$354per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$403est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$5,021now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$217
14 days−$2,600
30 days−$2,600
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$4,028
politics 13% −$341
other 2% −$341
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -20.4% -28.0% 50% 50% -13.0%
≤30d 76 -24.3% -31.5% 43% 42% -17.5%
≤90d 76 -24.3% -31.5% 43% 42% -17.5%
all 114 -20.1% -27.8% 44% 41% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 41% -20.5%
10% -34.7% 38% -28.1%
15% -41.0% 33% -35.1%
20% -46.8% 26% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$238 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$5,021
Realized−$4,335
Unrealized−$314
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses50 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$403
Open positions4
Markets (closed)114 / 118
History coverage212d
Avg bet$354
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $2,448 $2,439 −$9 (-0%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2,621 $2,288 −$332 (-13%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ 55¢ $245 $272 +$28 (+11%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 97¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $817 −$802 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $319 +$173 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $350 +$182 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $276 +$73 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $467 +$149 +32%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $369 +$207 +56%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $767 −$755 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $457 +$461 +101%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 10 $66 −$65 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 10 $30 −$30 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $707 +$538 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $414 −$405 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $369 +$277 +75%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $406 −$14 -3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $501 −$498 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,181 +$608 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $401 +$48 +12%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $495 +$177 +36%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $250 −$250 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $392 +$307 +78%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $236 −$231 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $1,129 −$1,110 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $201 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,101 +$141 +7%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $796 −$33 -4%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $910 +$524 +58%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $95 −$81 -85%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $503 +$114 +23%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $307 +$1,039 +338%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $321 +$578 +180%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $289 −$289 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $303 +$312 +103%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $205 −$200 -97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $162 +$128 +79%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $153 −$150 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $151 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $713 −$700 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,203 +$491 +41%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $198 −$194 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $859 +$339 +40%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $483 −$478 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $244 −$239 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $324 −$318 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $638 +$128 +20%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $258 −$254 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $10 30m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $34 30m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $42 30m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $64 30m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $85 30m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $12 30m
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? SELL No 51¢ $9 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,998 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $22 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $73 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $29 2h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,461 2h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 64¢ $4 2h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 64¢ $5 3h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 37¢ $425 3h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $417 3h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 97¢ $21 3h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 37¢ $76 4h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $96 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 39¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $155 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $561 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $492 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $532 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $350 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $350 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,021.34 · official $5,021.34 (match) · 340 history records