trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | $29 | $29 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 13 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $30 | −$1 | -4% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 10 | $63 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | May 08 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? | Apr 19 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 19 | $25 | −$11 | -44% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? | Apr 03 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 01 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will another coalition form the next German Government? | Mar 30 | $15 | $0 | -1% |
| Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? | Mar 24 | $12 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 23 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 20 | $1 | $0 | -10% |
| Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? | Mar 18 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 18 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? | Mar 17 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 0% | 0% | -10.7% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 0% | 0% | -10.7% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 0% | 0% | -10.7% |
| all | 17 | -2.4% | -11.7% | 41% | 0% | -14.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.7% | 0% | -14.1% |
| 10% | -20.2% | 0% | -22.3% |
| 15% | -27.9% | 0% | -29.8% |
| 20% | -35.0% | 0% | -36.7% |