Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D0 0xd0be…a650 crypto 201 markets active 0h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$60 (-5%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate66%131W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$33
other 3% −$24
sports 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -7.6% -16.4% 80% 20% -10.6%
≤30d 170 -12.7% -21.0% 68% 26% -13.5%
≤90d 170 -12.7% -21.0% 68% 26% -13.5%
all 200 -13.7% -22.0% 66% 28% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 28% -15.1%
10% -29.4% 15% -23.2%
15% -36.2% 11% -30.6%
20% -42.5% 8% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses131 / 69
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)200 / 201
History coverage157d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 97¢ 98¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - January 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres New York Mets 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.21 · official $10.98 (match) · 853 history records