Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0bd…e598 world 88 markets active 6d ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,397 (-32%) realized −$4,420 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate31%25W / 56L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$426now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$117
14 days+$86
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$2,571
finance 31% −$1,471
other 8% +$147
politics 4% −$390
economics 2% −$96
weather 0% −$62
culture 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +15.5% +4.5% 100% 100% +4.5%
≤30d 9 -6.1% -15.0% 67% 44% -2.9%
≤90d 81 -32.5% -38.9% 31% 23% -39.3%
all 81 -32.5% -38.9% 31% 23% -39.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 23% -39.3%
10% -44.7% 16% -45.1%
15% -50.1% 9% -50.4%
20% -55.0% 4% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -37% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$114 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$426
Realized−$4,420
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses25 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)81 / 88
History coverage97d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 75¢ 82¢ $352 $388 +$35 (+10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $14 +$2 (+23%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 09 $758 +$117 +16%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027? Jun 04 $16 −$7 -42%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 02 $72 −$25 -34%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 26 $192 −$135 -71%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? May 20 $139 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $67 +$28 +42%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? May 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? May 17 $3 +$1 +33%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? May 17 $0 $0 +24%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $11 −$7 -65%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 11 $14 +$4 +25%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 11 $10 −$2 -17%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 11 $3 $0 +5%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 11 $10 $0 -1%
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? May 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 11 $29 −$27 -92%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $381 −$355 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $3,432 −$3,432 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or higher on May 9? May 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C or higher on May 7? May 07 $62 −$60 -96%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 17 $1,025 +$416 +41%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $256 −$21 -8%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Apr 15 $100 −$24 -24%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 14 $499 +$229 +46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 14 $412 −$135 -33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 14 $270 −$25 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 14 $455 −$36 -8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 14 $678 +$384 +57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 14 $336 +$105 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 14 $1,878 −$1,681 -90%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 14 $187 −$81 -43%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 14 $20 −$18 -88%
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? Apr 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? Apr 14 $10 −$4 -44%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 14 $61 −$13 -22%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Apr 14 $15 −$5 -33%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $25 −$12 -46%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Apr 14 $20 −$2 -11%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Apr 14 $35 −$17 -48%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 14 $55 −$34 -61%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 14 $35 −$7 -21%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 14 $40 −$5 -12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 14 $55 −$12 -22%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 14 $26 −$8 -31%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Apr 14 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 14 $39 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $107 5d
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 6d
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $47 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $22 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $72 22d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 75¢ $53 24d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 75¢ $228 24d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 75¢ $76 24d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 25d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 25d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $95 25d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $99 25d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $93 25d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 28d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 28d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $425.88 · official $425.88 (match) · 479 history records