Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D0 0xd0bd…c082 crypto 1581 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$345 (+1%) realized +$345 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate78%1233W / 348L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$29
14 days−$35
30 days+$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$66
world 0% −$10
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -7.9% -16.7% 73% 69% -10.7%
≤30d 372 +1.1% -8.5% 79% 78% -5.6%
≤90d 1115 -0.3% -9.8% 79% 76% -9.9%
all 1581 -0.2% -9.7% 78% 75% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 75% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 44% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 12% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$17 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$345
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1233 / 348
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1581 / 1581
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1581 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +23%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $67 +$22 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $27 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $67 +$9 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$3 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $71 +$14 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$6 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $77 −$72 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$6 +27%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$21 +20%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $87 +$23 +26%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $66 +$12 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$15 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$16 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $73 +$19 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$5 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $68 +$13 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 8m
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $67 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $17 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $27 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $67 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 10h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $12 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $101 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $71 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $15 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $21 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $28 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $98 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $77 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $23 33h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 35h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $100 39h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 39h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $87 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $66 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records