Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:05:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd0ba…ee0e crypto 672 markets active 2h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17,613 (-17%) realized −$17,613 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%406W / 266L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$68
14 days−$68
30 days+$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$18,718
crypto 15% +$767
other 0% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.1% -18.7% 50% 17% -33.2%
≤30d 10 +52.8% +38.2% 70% 50% +5.9%
≤90d 569 +2.1% -7.6% 59% 54% -8.8%
all 672 +2.2% -7.5% 60% 54% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 54% -25.1%
10% -16.4% 47% -32.2%
15% -24.5% 38% -38.8%
20% -31.9% 30% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$113 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17,613
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses406 / 266
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)672 / 672
History coverage249d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 672 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $112 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $41 +$21 +50%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $40 +$42 +107%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $328 +$72 +22%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $221 +$79 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 05 $9 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 05 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 29 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 29 $16 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 28 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 28 $50 +$46 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 27 $20 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 27 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 27 $2 +$3 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 27 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 27 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 27 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 27 $30 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 27 $25 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 27 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 27 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 27 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 27 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 25 $30 +$23 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 25 $20 +$16 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 21¢ $31 3d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 25¢ $50 3d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta SELL NRG 59¢ $61 14d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta BUY NRG 38¢ $41 14d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 19¢ $9 14d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL FUT Esports 57¢ $80 14d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 21¢ $31 14d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo BUY Team Vitality 82¢ $328 16d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL NRG 100¢ $300 16d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 73¢ $221 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $5 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $25 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $16 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1817 history records