Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D0 0xd0ba…16dc crypto 196 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$185 (+9%) realized +$179 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate72%140W / 55L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$199
14 days+$126
30 days+$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$211
weather 38% −$7
other 9% −$35
sports 6% −$16
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 +12.2% +1.5% 75% 66% +5.8%
≤30d 195 +3.3% -6.5% 72% 59% -3.1%
≤90d 195 +3.3% -6.5% 72% 59% -3.1%
all 195 +3.3% -6.5% 72% 59% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 59% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 33% -12.4%
15% -23.6% 26% -20.8%
20% -31.1% 24% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$179
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses140 / 55
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)195 / 196
History coverage15d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 58¢ 72¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $24 +$18 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $29 +$18 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $27 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$14 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $24 +$17 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $22 +$17 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $22 +$18 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $19 +$16 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $18 +$14 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$9 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$11 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $13 +$10 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$9 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $13 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $14 +$11 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $14 +$9 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$9 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $13 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $13 +$9 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$7 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $9 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $8 +$6 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $24 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $30 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $14 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $12 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $13 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $14 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $17 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $16 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.72 · official $26.85 · 401 history records