Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:29:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D0
0xd0b7…fa4b
world · 410 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$601 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$610 · open −$38
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,328
Realized+$610
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses206 / 137
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions116
Markets (closed)343 / 410
History coverage80d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 116 History 343 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$355
7 days−$361
14 days−$381
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $148 $156 +$8 (+5%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 85¢ 80¢ $111 $104 −$7 (-6%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 58¢ 64¢ $73 $80 +$8 (+10%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $48 $57 +$9 (+18%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 38¢ 32¢ $53 $45 −$8 (-15%)
Iran leadership change by May 31? No 94¢ 100¢ $40 $42 +$3 (+6%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? No 77¢ 100¢ $31 $40 +$9 (+30%)
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May? No 98¢ 100¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? No 83¢ 100¢ $27 $33 +$6 (+21%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $32 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? No 90¢ 100¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+11%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$1 (+4%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 90¢ 88¢ $31 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 55¢ $34 $30 −$4 (-11%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 25¢ 34¢ $21 $29 +$8 (+36%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+4%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $26 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? No 86¢ 100¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+16%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 70¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-6%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $27 $26 −$2 (-6%)
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? No 96¢ 100¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? No 60¢ 100¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Jun 13 $13 −$12 -89%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Jun 13 $29 −$30 -103%
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Jun 13 $71 −$77 -108%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 13 $4 −$8 -193%
Will Iran strike Oman in March? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? Jun 13 $7 −$12 -181%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 13 $6 −$19 -340%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Jun 13 $3 −$14 -499%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -103%
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Marco Rubio visit Israel by March 2? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Jun 13 $2 −$21 -953%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -109%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +170%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? Jun 13 $0 $0 -79%
US strikes Iraq by March 7? Jun 13 $9 −$6 -66%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -104%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Februa Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -77%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Jun 13 $7 −$9 -130%
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -11%
Trump goes to space in 2026? Jun 12 $23 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $23 $0 -1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -59%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $9 −$4 -44%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $27 −$12 -44%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $29 −$6 -22%
Will Trump resign before 2027? Jun 04 $15 +$19 +128%
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? Jun 04 $67 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 69% +$517
politics 10% +$80
other 8% +$41
finance 8% +$50
sports 3% +$275
crypto 2% −$41
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $1 57m
Will Trump and Putin not meet? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 88¢ $7 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $1 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $3 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 56¢ $1 18h
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 18h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 56¢ $1 19h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 56¢ $1 19h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 56¢ $1 19h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 19h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 20h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 20h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $3 21h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $1 21h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 21h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 62¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -73.6% -76.2% 5% 5% -80.2%
≤30d 122 +33.1% +20.5% 47% 24% -10.1%
≤90d 343 +28.9% +16.6% 60% 34% +0.6%
all 343 +28.9% +16.6% 60% 34% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.6% 34% +0.6%
10% ← realistic here +5.5% 27% -9.1%
15% -4.7% 22% -17.8%
20% -14.1% 18% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,328.02 · official $2,328.07 (match) · 3500 history records