Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:39:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0b4…9dc2 sports 1269 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,568 (-4%) realized −$1,603 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%441W / 803L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$151
14 days−$348
30 days−$438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$850
other 44% −$807
world 0% +$40
politics 0% −$16
crypto 0% −$5
tech 0% −$5
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -31.4% -38.0% 26% 26% -37.2%
≤30d 58 -29.1% -35.8% 28% 26% -31.7%
≤90d 281 -12.3% -20.6% 33% 33% -16.1%
all 1244 -11.1% -19.5% 35% 34% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 34% -13.6%
10% -27.2% 34% -21.9%
15% -34.3% 33% -29.4%
20% -40.7% 31% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$23 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$1,603
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses441 / 803
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1244 / 1269
History coverage238d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Boston Red Sox 61¢ 86¢ $80 $113 +$33 (+42%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Jun 23 $10 +$33 +327%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $25 +$26 +103%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $80 +$25 +32%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $29 +$14 +48%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 18 $10 +$39 +376%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $25 +$23 +91%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $91 −$46 -51%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 17 $97 −$48 -50%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $50 +$41 +82%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$21 +105%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $47 +$103 +219%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $87 −$87 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $23 +$26 +111%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $42 +$20 +49%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $74 −$4 -5%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $15 +$13 +82%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $81 +$88 +109%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 61¢ $80 1h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Adam Walton 33¢ $9 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 9¢ $10 14h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 AND Eng BUY 28¢ $30 24h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Wi BUY 19¢ $15 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners AND Colombia vs. DR BUY 34¢ $25 28h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Bo BUY 3¢ $3 31h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? AND Exact Score: Colombia 2 - BUY 1¢ $3 32h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals AND Luis Díaz: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 3+ BUY 3¢ $3 32h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 AND Colombia BUY 8¢ $7 34h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals AND Har BUY 2¢ $3 39h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels AND New York Yankees vs. Detr BUY 4¢ $4 39h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND SELL 99¢ $44 39h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) AND Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5 BUY 5¢ $9 46h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND BUY 23¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $5 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins AND Chicago Cubs vs. New York BUY 22¢ $26 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardin BUY 4¢ $6 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 3¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-2 BUY 44¢ $51 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Wi BUY 2¢ $5 3d
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) BUY 100 Thieves 30¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL ex-RUBY 84¢ $52 3d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY ex-RUBY 40¢ $25 3d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 35¢ $60 3d
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 10¢ $4 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $65 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.86 · official $134.86 · 2724 history records