Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D0 0xd0ad…b23e sports 1104 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$428 (-0%) realized −$334 · open −$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%575W / 509L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day76.0pace
Fees−$1,205est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$350
7 days+$271
14 days−$2,302
30 days−$1,922
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$1,736
other 2% −$76
politics 1% +$250
world 0% −$206
finance 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 -6.2% -15.2% 55% 49% -8.0%
≤30d 950 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 51% -11.1%
≤90d 1084 -3.5% -12.7% 53% 50% -10.8%
all 1084 -3.5% -12.7% 53% 50% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 50% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 45% -19.3%
15% -28.6% 41% -27.1%
20% -35.6% 33% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$59 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$2,223
Realized−$334
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses575 / 509
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$1,205
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1084 / 1104
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$102
Trades / day76.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 1084 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ 100¢ $500 $529 +$29 (+6%)
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier KT Rolster Challengers 98¢ 100¢ $500 $508 +$8 (+2%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) KT Rolster Challengers 83¢ 100¢ $138 $166 +$28 (+20%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Saigon Warriors 50¢ 47¢ $156 $148 −$8 (-5%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 80¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 87¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 74¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 61¢ 76¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+25%)
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Saigon Warriors 70¢ 78¢ $52 $58 +$6 (+11%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 12¢ $154 $21 −$132 (-86%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 35¢ 34¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Saigon Warriors 51¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 129 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $533 +$45 +8%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $113 +$87 +76%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $196 +$169 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$25 +83%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$30 +60%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $353 +$162 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$71 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $294 +$207 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $788 −$615 -78%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$32 +63%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $131 −$130 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1,280 +$69 +5%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$42 +42%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $51 +$49 +97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $30 +$30 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $152 +$44 +29%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$33 +109%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $30 +$30 +97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $51 +$34 +67%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 +$46 +152%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $77 −$75 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $48 −$48 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2,027 +$30 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $108 −$57 -52%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $191 +$36 +19%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $25 −$23 -90%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $32 34m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $29 34m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 35m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $21 35m
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $578 36m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 56¢ $6 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 55¢ $26 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 56¢ $10 1h
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY Saigon Warriors 71¢ $5 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 49¢ $25 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 51¢ $26 2h
Game Handicap: TESC (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY Saigon Warriors 70¢ $48 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 48¢ $49 2h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 47¢ $42 2h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 92¢ $454 2h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 92¢ $60 2h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 92¢ $9 2h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 92¢ $9 2h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 92¢ $28 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $51 2h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 98¢ $500 2h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 81¢ $111 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $501 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $30 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 22h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 53¢ $196 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 57¢ $164 24h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 62¢ $51 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,222.99 · official $2,083.30 · 3500 history records