Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D0
0xd0ad…bce9
crypto · 747 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$1,391 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$149 · open −$55
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$155
Realized+$149
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses389 / 356
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions2
Markets (closed)745 / 747
History coverage112d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 2 History 745 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$855
7 days−$693
14 days−$839
30 days−$913
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Vitality 78¢ 76¢ $158 $155 −$3 (-2%)
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) TheMongolz 38¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox No 55¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 43¢ 0¢ $121 $0 −$121 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $178 $0 −$178 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B FURIA 72¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 56¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs G2 69¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Under 83¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Legacy 59¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 44¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 51¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 51¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Athletics 42¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 0¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 +$59 +59%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $52 +$48 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$28 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $34 +$19 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$12 +53%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $33 −$32 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $33 −$3 -10%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 −$2 -43%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +29%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 13 $53 −$52 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $123 −$121 -98%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $96 +$28 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $36 +$40 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $45 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $99 −$95 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $98 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $532 −$527 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $122 +$107 +88%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $103 +$52 +50%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $69 −$68 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) Jun 12 $71 +$44 +62%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $71 +$64 +90%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $56 +$36 +65%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $89 −$35 -40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $63 +$26 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $66 −$39 -60%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $50 +$46 +93%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $141 +$71 +50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $252 +$84 +33%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $250 +$188 +75%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $37 −$11 -28%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 −$2 -57%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $65 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $78 +$85 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $101 +$53 +52%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $89 −$88 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $129 −$109 -85%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 11 $62 +$70 +112%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 10 $54 +$28 +52%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $152 +$131 +86%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $71 −$70 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 58% +$3,864
sports 34% −$7,503
world 4% +$1,270
other 2% +$838
finance 2% +$1,626
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 78¢ $159 15m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $159 18m
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $31 2h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 38¢ $53 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 64¢ $34 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $22 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $33 11h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $33 13h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Houston Astros 42¢ $30 13h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) SELL Scotland 12¢ $3 13h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 45¢ $33 13h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Scotland 20¢ $4 14h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 14h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 15h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY No 75¢ $53 37h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 43¢ $123 39h
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 2 Winner SELL Estar Backs 100¢ $123 39h
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 77¢ $96 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $36 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $45 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $56 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $99 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $98 46h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $532 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -8.4% -17.2% 49% 49% -17.7%
≤30d 136 -6.2% -15.1% 51% 51% -17.5%
≤90d 157 -7.8% -16.6% 51% 51% -18.2%
all 745 -1.4% -10.7% 52% 52% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 52% -7.6%
10% -19.3% 52% -16.4%
15% -27.1% 49% -24.5%
20% -34.2% 42% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.45 · official $155.45 (match) · 1776 history records