Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0ad…7540 crypto 27 markets active 6d ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$250 (-19%) realized −$250 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate30%8W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$36
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% +$25
finance 22% −$32
other 22% −$185
crypto 8% −$62
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -40.9% -46.5% 25% 25% -68.5%
≤30d 8 -40.9% -46.5% 25% 25% -68.5%
≤90d 8 -40.9% -46.5% 25% 25% -68.5%
all 27 -42.1% -47.6% 30% 22% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.6% 22% -28.5%
10% -52.6% 19% -35.3%
15% -57.2% 15% -41.6%
20% -61.4% 7% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses8 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage138d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 10 $10 +$4 +44%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? Feb 09 $150 −$40 -27%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $619 +$25 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of January? Jan 30 $71 −$47 -66%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January? Jan 30 $120 −$118 -98%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February? Jan 30 $80 −$2 -3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 29? Jan 29 $9 −$7 -70%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January? Jan 29 $20 −$19 -93%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? Jan 29 $20 −$17 -83%
Will Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Jan 28 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 28 $20 +$8 +39%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $4 +$1 +27%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 28? Jan 28 $5 −$2 -35%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 27? Jan 27 $103 +$14 +13%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 26? Jan 26 $4 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $7 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $5 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 127d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? BUY Up 63¢ $50 128d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? SELL Up 62¢ $49 128d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? BUY Up 63¢ $50 128d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? SELL Up 62¢ $61 128d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? BUY Up 51¢ $50 130d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL No 0¢ $0 137d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 6¢ $5 137d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 137d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records