Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0ad…2391 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$222 (-22%) realized −$222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate57%16W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day37.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$198
sports 18% −$10
crypto 13% −$5
world 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -17.5% -25.4% 57% 25% -28.5%
≤30d 28 -17.5% -25.4% 57% 25% -28.5%
≤90d 28 -17.5% -25.4% 57% 25% -28.5%
all 28 -17.5% -25.4% 57% 25% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 25% -28.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 18% -35.3%
15% -39.0% 11% -41.6%
20% -45.0% 4% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$29 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses16 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage2d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day37.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$20 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$5 -33%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $194 −$188 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $141 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$3 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 +$5 +30%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 56m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $23 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $28 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $99 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 33h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 33h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $192 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 77¢ $81 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records