Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D0 0xd0ac…7dee sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (695 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$26,984 (+8%) realized +$26,960 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt +132% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +61% what you keep after slip
Net edge+61%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate53%46W / 40L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$7,405per market
Trades / day694.6pace
Fees−$4,422est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$4,703
other 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (695 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+109.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +131.8% +109.7% 53% 13% -8.1%
≤30d 86 +131.8% +109.7% 53% 13% -8.1%
≤90d 86 +131.8% +109.7% 53% 13% -8.1%
all 86 +131.8% +109.7% 53% 13% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover694.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +109.7% 13% -8.1%
10% +89.7% 13% -16.9%
15% ← realistic here +71.3% 10% -24.9%
20% +54.5% 10% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +132% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$5,552) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +262% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
37.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$34 · ×5.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.92 per $1 lost it wins $5.92
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$2,524
Realized+$26,960
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses46 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$4,422
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 48
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$7,405
Trades / day694.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Adrian Mannarino 99¢ 100¢ $2,500 $2,524 +$24 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 16 $9 +$231 +2648%
Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs Swiatek Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$31 -103%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Corentin Moutet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Jun 16 $2 +$12 +520%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$5 -192%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar Jun 16 $1 −$111 -8500%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Irem Kurt Jun 16 $30 −$14 -48%
Prostejov: Alexander Shevchenko vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 16 $1 +$159 +25316%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Jesper de Jong Jun 16 $0 +$9 +2154%
Chisinau: Daniil Glinka vs Liam Broady Jun 16 $188 +$146 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$4 -108%
Paris: Shuai Zhang vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Alex Molcan Jun 16 $28 +$413 +1478%
Kosice: Dali Blanch vs Sandro Kopp Jun 16 $2 −$2 -112%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 16 $51 −$50 -100%
Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Ognjen Milic Jun 16 $0 −$42 -18383%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 16 $11 +$1,030 +9702%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 16 $0 +$386 +1012312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 16 $0 +$32 +54512%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: Elsa Jacquemot vs Anastas Jun 16 $49 −$64 -129%
ITF Focsani: Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni vs Sophie Greiner Jun 16 $16 −$18 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $5,552 +$336 +6%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $5,428 +$173 +3%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $12,006 +$23 +0%
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $201 +$3 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $172 $0 -0%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $1,557 +$19 +1%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $13,892 +$101 +1%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $1,167 +$6 +0%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $3,862 +$26 +1%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $20,952 +$234 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 100¢ $5,045 27m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 99¢ $1,708 30m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 99¢ $297 30m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 99¢ $495 30m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 90¢ $4,536 36m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 36¢ $37 39m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 62¢ $8 39m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 62¢ $2 39m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 62¢ $9 39m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 62¢ $3 39m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 44¢ $63 40m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 18¢ $33 42m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 81¢ $1 42m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 81¢ $16 42m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 82¢ $503 42m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 39¢ $18 42m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 39¢ $246 42m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 39¢ $6 42m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 39¢ $49 42m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Jakub Mensik 60¢ $203 42m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 61¢ $18 42m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 61¢ $5 42m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 60¢ $183 42m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 69¢ $41 43m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 69¢ $5 43m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 69¢ $10 43m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 69¢ $18 43m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 68¢ $8 43m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 68¢ $7 43m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 68¢ $10 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,524.00 · official $2,524.00 (match) · 3500 history records