Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0a7…4631 other 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 230L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$28
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$38
sports 23% −$19
politics 9% −$8
economics 7% −$6
culture 7% −$9
crypto 6% −$5
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage138d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $153 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $224 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $216 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $317 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $445 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $223 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $380 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $364 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $134 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $141 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $772 −$2 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $376 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $158 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $406 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $151 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $312 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $531 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $726 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $94 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $359 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $329 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $140 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $139 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $529 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $451 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $60 5h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $60 6h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $60 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $60 16h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 20h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 22h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 23h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 24h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $60 26h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 28h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 30h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 32h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 32h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 34h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 36h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 38h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 39h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 40h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 42h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 44h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.80 · official $59.80 (match) · 1408 history records