Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0a0…35cd other 698 markets active 1h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,279 (-4%) realized −$5,339 · open +$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%319W / 377L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$214est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$318
14 days+$703
30 days+$850
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$3,191
sports 21% −$1,955
world 2% +$256
crypto 1% −$547
politics 0% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +6.4% -3.7% 58% 58% +0.8%
≤30d 78 +22.0% +10.4% 62% 59% +0.2%
≤90d 382 -9.3% -17.9% 47% 46% -20.3%
all 696 -3.5% -12.7% 46% 44% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 44% -13.7%
10% -21.1% 40% -22.0%
15% -28.7% 32% -29.5%
20% -35.7% 26% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$77 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized−$5,339
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses319 / 377
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$214
Open positions2
Markets (closed)696 / 698
History coverage201d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 696 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 100¢ $112 $200 +$88 (+78%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 59¢ 45¢ $118 $90 −$28 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $52 +$48 +93%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $48 −$47 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $103 −$102 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $107 +$92 +86%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $136 +$29 +21%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $206 +$94 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $75 −$27 -36%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $129 −$128 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $129 −$47 -36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $43 +$57 +134%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $117 +$83 +70%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $122 −$40 -33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $221 +$49 +22%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $125 +$75 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $143 +$32 +22%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $141 −$17 -12%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $135 +$60 +44%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $37 −$36 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $115 +$82 +71%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 −$87 -43%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $125 +$75 +60%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $158 +$92 +58%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $95 −$94 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $123 +$69 +56%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $40 +$60 +150%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $118 +$57 +48%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $83 +$117 +140%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $99 +$101 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $131 −$81 -61%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $152 +$148 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $42 +$58 +140%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$130 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $131 +$69 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $176 −$174 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $95 +$105 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $70 +$80 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$26 -48%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $76 +$74 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $399 +$138 +34%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $141 +$4 +2%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: Both Teams to Score May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $62 +$21 +34%
CD Castellón vs. SD Eibar: Both Teams to Score May 31 $58 +$41 +71%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score May 31 $58 +$42 +73%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: Both Teams to Score May 31 $28 +$71 +254%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $53 +$31 +59%
Will BK Hacken win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $18 +$139 +762%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $113 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $119 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $48 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 23h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $103 23h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $200 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 83¢ $165 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $136 25h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $107 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $206 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 31¢ $34 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $75 47h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $129 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 42¢ $83 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $117 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $129 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $29 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $38 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $40 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $270 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $93 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $221 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $175 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $143 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $125 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $125 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $55 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.40 · official $292.30 (match) · 2257 history records