Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:44:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd09d…68ba world 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%29W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
other 20% $0
sports 15% −$13
politics 12% $0
economics 5% $0
finance 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.1% -11.4% 22% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 30 -1.3% -10.7% 37% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 75 -0.5% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 84 -5.1% -14.2% 35% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -22.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses29 / 55
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage532d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 83¢ 80¢ $37 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $44 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $36 +$1 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $54 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $4 −$1 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $62 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $79 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $124 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $77 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $64 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $73 +$2 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $8 −$1 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $77 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $38 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $36 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $4 $0 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $36 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $35 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 20 $39 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $33 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $37 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $74 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $76 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $68 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $37 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $8 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $8 38h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $37 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $36 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $12 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $39 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $39 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $27 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $36 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $37 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $37 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.43 · official $35.42 (match) · 356 history records