Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D0
0xd09c…4957
crypto · 357 markets active 3d ago
0.0score
−$419 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open −$428
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,194
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$428
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses180 / 176
Open positions1
Markets (closed)356 / 357
History coverage151d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 356 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,622 $1,194 −$428 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 29 $1 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 29 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 29 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 29 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 29 $1 +$2 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 29 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 29 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 29 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 29 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 29 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 29 $1 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 29 $1 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 29 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 29 $1 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 28 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 28 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 28 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 60% −$6
other 40% −$428
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $494 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $497 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $170 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $149 14d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 15d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $104 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $19 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 172 -13.0% -21.2% 45% 36% -24.0%
all 356 +12.0% +1.3% 51% 44% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 44% -9.7%
10% -8.4% 38% -18.4%
15% -17.2% 31% -26.3%
20% -25.3% 25% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,194.12 · official $1,194.12 (match) · 1716 history records