Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D0 0xd099…3a44 crypto 1181 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 159d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$260 (+1%) realized +$269 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate68%795W / 366L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$3
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$166
politics 1% −$71
finance 1% −$2
world 1% −$17
other 1% −$46
tech 0% −$2
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +1.4% -8.2% 74% 47% -12.0%
≤30d 164 -3.7% -12.8% 69% 45% -12.7%
≤90d 541 -1.6% -11.0% 68% 43% -13.3%
all 1161 -2.3% -11.6% 68% 45% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 45% -10.8%
10% -20.0% 26% -19.4%
15% -27.8% 15% -27.2%
20% -34.8% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$269
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses795 / 366
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1161 / 1181
History coverage160d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 1161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? No 90¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? No 75¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? No 50¢ 47¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26? Up 89¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 89¢ 84¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 35¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in June? No 70¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 78¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will "Mamdani" be in the headlines this week? Yes 43¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-89%)
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30? Jun 16 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$8 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be 40+ VAR stoppages during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$18 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 32m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 56m
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $3 3h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.36 · official $64.39 (match) · 3500 history records