Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D0 0xd099…6ad3 sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$1,224 (+20%) realized +$1,186 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%27W / 42L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$882
7 days+$1,207
14 days+$1,796
30 days+$1,796
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$1,321
other 34% +$192
crypto 5% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +13.8% +3.0% 30% 28% +23.5%
≤30d 68 +42.3% +28.7% 40% 38% +23.0%
≤90d 68 +42.3% +28.7% 40% 38% +23.0%
all 69 +40.9% +27.5% 39% 38% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.5% 38% +13.5%
10% +15.3% 38% +2.7%
15% +4.1% 38% -7.3%
20% -6.1% 36% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +79% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$70 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$409
Realized+$1,186
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses27 / 42
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 73
History coverage246d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $236 $238 +$2 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $87 $122 +$35 (+40%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $71 −$71 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $301 +$399 +133%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $143 −$143 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $105 +$645 +614%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $414 +$486 +117%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $73 −$72 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $79 −$78 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $152 −$152 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $133 −$133 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $57 +$3 +6%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $92 −$92 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $28 +$222 +809%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $120 +$120 +100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $38 +$212 +550%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $296 +$311 +105%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $100 +$300 +300%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $88 −$88 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $62 +$98 +158%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $48 +$52 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$78 +351%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $98 +$102 +104%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$108 +105%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $16 +$184 +1150%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $85 +$415 +488%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $109 −$108 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$35 +140%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $81 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $90 −$89 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $49 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $44 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $192 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $71 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $148 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $38 5h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $115 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $47 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $96 7h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY 31¢ $77 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 23h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $414 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $73 27h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $79 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $19 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $3 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $11 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $33 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $67 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $4 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $13 31h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $133 41h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $409.00 · official $409.00 (match) · 350 history records