Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:14:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D0 0xd099…96b1 sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 637d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$66 (+1%) realized +$68 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 77% +$8
other 15% +$18
sports 7% +$38
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 44 -1.6% -11.0% 36% 18% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 18% -8.7%
10% -19.5% 18% -17.4%
15% -27.3% 18% -25.4%
20% -34.4% 18% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$7 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

637d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$68
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage637d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $61 $59 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $915 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $2,700 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $1,812 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $900 −$2 -0%
Magic vs. Pistons Oct 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Padres vs. Marlins Jul 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Orioles vs. Guardians Jul 22 $3 +$2 +79%
MLB All-Star Game Jul 21 $3 +$3 +92%
Astros vs. Rays May 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Mets vs. Yankees May 19 $7 +$6 +79%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $5 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 16 $1 $0 +7%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 16 $8 $0 -4%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 09 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $6 $0 -4%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 03 $5 $0 -1%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Jan 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? Jan 02 $24 $0 +0%
Ethena crash in 2024? Jan 02 $25 $0 +0%
Flyers vs. Red Wings Dec 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $16-19m on 3-day opening weeken Dec 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Rangers vs. Predators Dec 18 $101 +$97 +96%
Faithless elector in US election? Dec 18 $25 +$16 +65%
Bulls vs. Raptors Dec 17 $107 +$97 +90%
WNBA: Lynx vs. Sun Series Winner Oct 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Oct 07 $39 +$33 +85%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 03 $13 +$20 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $62 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $914 89d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $915 89d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $899 89d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $900 90d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $911 90d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $912 90d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $899 90d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $900 90d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $899 90d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $900 104d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $899 104d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $900 110d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $898 110d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $900 112d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic 53¢ $8 243d
Padres vs. Marlins BUY Padres 51¢ $11 342d
Orioles vs. Guardians BUY Guardians 56¢ $3 343d
MLB All-Star Game BUY National League 52¢ $3 349d
Astros vs. Rays BUY Rays 56¢ $15 406d
Mets vs. Yankees BUY Yankees 56¢ $7 409d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $6 412d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $6 412d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $5 413d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $5 413d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? SELL No 98¢ $5 417d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 417d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $6 418d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $6 418d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $6 419d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.41 · official $59.41 (match) · 127 history records