Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:10:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd098…c290 sports 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-3%) realized −$48 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate29%13W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$54
other 17% +$38
politics 10% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +16.9% +5.7% 42% 33% -7.3%
≤30d 45 -0.7% -10.2% 29% 13% -15.1%
≤90d 45 -0.7% -10.2% 29% 13% -15.1%
all 45 -0.7% -10.2% 29% 13% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 13% -15.1%
10% -18.8% 11% -23.2%
15% -26.6% 9% -30.6%
20% -33.8% 7% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses13 / 32
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions6
Markets (closed)45 / 51
History coverage35d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Lukas Neumayer 69¢ 81¢ $36 $43 +$6 (+17%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Kimberly Birrell 28¢ 53¢ $18 $35 +$16 (+88%)
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Karolina Muchova 94¢ 91¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jakub Mensik 85¢ 86¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Hubert Hurkacz 48¢ 50¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Joao Fonseca 34¢ 38¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $4 +$9 +200%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $5 −$1 -26%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $15 −$4 -28%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini Jun 16 $6 $0 -1%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $64 −$4 -6%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $3 +$1 +41%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $12 +$1 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 $0 -4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 -7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 -5%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 09 $8 −$1 -13%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $3 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $85 −$8 -9%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5 $0 -6%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $19 $0 -2%
FC Südtirol vs. SSC Bari: O/U 2.5 May 22 $4 −$2 -38%
Will Pharco FC win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $5 −$4 -75%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5 May 22 $5 $0 -10%
Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5 May 22 $5 $0 -1%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 May 22 $47 −$2 -3%
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-23? May 22 $9 $0 -2%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5 May 22 $9 $0 -2%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 22 $5 $0 -5%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 5.5 May 22 $101 −$13 -13%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5 May 22 $3 $0 -12%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba end in a draw? May 22 $5 $0 -3%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $79 +$46 +58%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 22 $5 $0 -6%
Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? May 22 $11 +$1 +10%
Bengaluru 3: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Alastair Gray May 22 $1 $0 +2%
Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Gabriele Piraino May 20 $11 +$1 +5%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) May 20 $2 $0 +10%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann May 20 $3 $0 -7%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 May 20 $11 −$1 -10%
Geneva Open: Cameron Norrie vs Mariano Navone May 20 $84 −$60 -71%
Will Ceramica Cleopatra Club win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $4 −$3 -75%
Will El Ahly SC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $19 $0 +1%
Will Pyramids FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $8 $0 -3%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Sinja Kraus vs Noma Noha Akugue May 20 $9 −$4 -47%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien May 20 $11 +$1 +9%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Himeno Sak May 20 $13 −$1 -6%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $2 +$3 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 48¢ $6 5m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 26¢ $11 6m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 26¢ $2 6m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 26¢ $3 6m
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 34¢ $2 7m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 46¢ $3 7m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 85¢ $15 7m
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 94¢ $27 8m
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer BUY Lukas Neumayer 69¢ $37 8m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics SELL Marton Fucsovics 14¢ $4 45m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 17¢ $4 45m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Tallon Griekspoor 43¢ $11 45m
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand SELL Robin Bertrand 46¢ $7 45m
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini SELL Mees Rottgering 98¢ $6 45m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm SELL Jenson Brooksby 39¢ $61 45m
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand BUY Robin Bertrand 36¢ $5 57m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 56¢ $3 57m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 40¢ $12 57m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 55¢ $3 57m
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini BUY Mees Rottgering 99¢ $6 57m
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 33¢ $2 57m
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 33¢ $3 58m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 40¢ $8 58m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 59¢ $4 58m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 40¢ $30 59m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Jenson Brooksby 40¢ $7 59m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 18¢ $2 59m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 60¢ $5 59m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 59¢ $10 59m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 59¢ $5 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.82 · official $126.82 (match) · 191 history records